Sampling, Intervention, Prediction, Aggregation: A Generalized Framework for Model-Agnostic Interpretations

Model-agnostic interpretation techniques allow us to explain the behavior of any predictive model. Due to different notations and terminology, it is difficult to see how they are related. A unified view on these methods has been missing. We present the generalized SIPA (sampling, intervention, prediction, aggregation) framework of work stages for model-agnostic interpretations and demonstrate how several prominent methods for feature effects can be embedded into the proposed framework. Furthermore, we extend the framework to feature importance computations by pointing out how variance-based and performance-based importance measures are based on the same work stages. The SIPA framework reduces the diverse set of model-agnostic techniques to a single methodology and establishes a common terminology to discuss them in future work

Dutch healthcare reform: did it result in better patient experiences in hospitals? a comparison of the consumer quality index over time

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2006, the Dutch hospital market was reformed to create a more efficient delivery system through managed competition. To allow competition on quality, patient experiences were measured using the Consumer Quality index (CQI). We study whether public reporting and competition had an effect on the CQI between 2006 and 2009.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed 8,311 respondents covering 31 hospitals in 2006, 22,333 respondents covering 78 hospitals in 2007 and 24,246 respondents covering 94 hospitals in 2009. We describe CQI trends over the period 2006-2009. In addition we compare hospitals that varied in the level of competition they faced and hospitals that were forced to publish CQI results publicly and those that were not. We corrected for observable covariates between hospital respondents using a multi level linear regression. We used the Herfindahl Hirschman Index to indicate the level of competition.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between 2006 and 2009 hospitals showed a CQI improvement of 0.034 (p < 0.05) to 0.060 (p < 0.01) points on a scale between one and four. Hospitals that were forced to publish their scores showed a further improvement of 0.027 (p < 0.01) to 0.030 (p < 0.05). Furthermore, hospitals that faced more competition from geographically close competitors showed a more pronounced improvement of CQI-scores 0.004 to 0.05 than other hospitals (p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results show that patients reported improved experiences measured by the CQI between 2006 and 2009. CQI levels improve at a faster rate in areas with higher levels of competition. Hospitals confronted with forced public publication of their CQI responded by enhancing the experiences of their patients.</p

Free Will in a Quantum World?

In this paper, I argue that Conway and Kochen’s Free Will Theorem (1,2) to the conclusion that quantum mechanics and relativity entail freedom for the particles, does not change the situation in favor of a libertarian position as they would like. In fact, the theorem more or less implicitly assumes that people are free, and thus it begs the question. Moreover, it does not prove neither that if people are free, so are particles, nor that the property people possess when they are said to be free is the same as the one particles possess when they are claimed to be free. I then analyze the Free State Theorem (2), which generalizes the Free Will Theorem without the assumption that people are free, and I show that it does not prove anything about free will, since the notion of freedom for particles is either inconsistent, or it does not concern our common understanding of freedom. In both cases, the Free Will Theorem and the Free State Theorem do not provide any enlightenment on the constraints physics can pose on free will

Weight management: a comparison of existing dietary approaches in a work-site setting

&lt;b&gt;OBJECTIVES:&lt;/b&gt; (1) To compare the effectiveness a 2512 kJ (600 kcal) daily energy deficit diet (ED) with a 6279 kJ (1500 kcal) generalized low-calorie diet (GLC) over a 24 week period (12 weeks weight loss plus 12 weeks weight maintenance). (2) To determine if the inclusion of lean red meat at least five times per week as part of a slimming diet is compatible with weight loss in comparison with a diet that excludes lean red meat. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. &lt;b&gt;SETTING:&lt;/b&gt; Large petrochemical work-site. &lt;b&gt;PARTICIPANTS:&lt;/b&gt; One-hundred and twenty-two men aged between 18 and 55 y. &lt;b&gt;MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:&lt;/b&gt; Weight loss and maintenance of weight loss. &lt;b&gt;INTERVENTION:&lt;/b&gt; Eligible volunteers were randomized to one of the four diet=meat combinations (ED meat, ED no meat, GLC meat, GLC no meat). One-third of subjects in each diet/meat combination were randomized to an initial control period prior to receiving dietary advice. All subjects attended for review every 2 weeks during the weight loss period. For the 12 week structured weight maintenance phase, individualized energy prescriptions were re-calculated for the ED group as 1.4 (activity factor)x basal metabolic rate. Healthy eating advice was reviewed with subjects in the GLC group. All subjects were contacted by electronic mail at 2 week intervals and anthropometric and dietary information requested. &lt;b&gt;RESULTS:&lt;/b&gt; No difference was evident between diet groups in mean weight loss at 12 weeks (4.3 (s.d. 3.4) kg ED group vs 5.0 (s.d. 3.5) kg GLC group, P=0.34). Mean weight loss was closer to the intended weight loss in the 2512 kJ (600 kcal) ED group. The dropout rate was also lower than the GLC group. The inclusion of lean red meat in the diet on at least five occasions per week did not impair weight loss. Mean weight gain following 12 weeks weight maintenance was þ1.1 (s.d. 1.8) kg, P&lt;0.0001. No differences were found between groups. &lt;b&gt;CONCLUSIONS:&lt;/b&gt; This study has shown that the individualized 2512 kJ (600 kcal) ED approach was no more effective in terms of weight loss than the 6279 kJ (1500 kcal) GLC approach. However the ED approach might be considered preferable as compliance was better with this less demanding prescription. In terms of weight loss the elimination of red meat from the diet is unnecessary. The weight maintenance intervention was designed as a low-input approach, however weight regain was significant and weight maintenance strategies require further development

Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web

The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we analyze the world network of bilateral trade imbalances and characterize its overall flux organization, unraveling local and global high-flux pathways that define the backbone of the trade system. We develop a general procedure capable to progressively filter out in a consistent and quantitative way the dominant trade channels. This procedure is completely general and can be applied to any weighted network to detect the underlying structure of transport flows. The trade fluxes properties of the world trade web determines a ranking of trade partnerships that highlights global interdependencies, providing information not accessible by simple local analysis. The present work provides new quantitative tools for a dynamical approach to the propagation of economic crises

Formulation and performance of variational integrators for rotating bodies

Variational integrators are obtained for two mechanical systems whose configuration spaces are, respectively, the rotation group and the unit sphere. In the first case, an integration algorithm is presented for Euler’s equations of the free rigid body, following the ideas of Marsden et al. (Nonlinearity 12:1647–1662, 1999). In the second example, a variational time integrator is formulated for the rigid dumbbell. Both methods are formulated directly on their nonlinear configuration spaces, without using Lagrange multipliers. They are one-step, second order methods which show exact conservation of a discrete angular momentum which is identified in each case. Numerical examples illustrate their properties and compare them with existing integrators of the literature

Charged Dilatonic AdS Black Branes in Arbitrary Dimensions

We study electromagnetically charged dilatonic black brane solutions in arbitrary dimensions with flat transverse spaces, that are asymptotically AdS. This class of solutions includes spacetimes which possess a bulk region where the metric is approximately invariant under Lifshitz scalings. Given fixed asymptotic boundary conditions, we analyze how the behavior of the bulk up to the horizon varies with the charges and derive the extremality conditions for these spacetimes.Comment: References update

The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality

Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change1. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide2, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies

TVL₁ Planarity Regularization for 3D Shape Approximation

The modern emergence of automation in many industries has given impetus to extensive research into mobile robotics. Novel perception technologies now enable cars to drive autonomously, tractors to till a field automatically and underwater robots to construct pipelines. An essential requirement to facilitate both perception and autonomous navigation is the analysis of the 3D environment using sensors like laser scanners or stereo cameras. 3D sensors generate a very large number of 3D data points when sampling object shapes within an environment, but crucially do not provide any intrinsic information about the environment which the robots operate within. This work focuses on the fundamental task of 3D shape reconstruction and modelling from 3D point clouds. The novelty lies in the representation of surfaces by algebraic functions having limited support, which enables the extraction of smooth consistent implicit shapes from noisy samples with a heterogeneous density. The minimization of total variation of second differential degree makes it possible to enforce planar surfaces which often occur in man-made environments. Applying the new technique means that less accurate, low-cost 3D sensors can be employed without sacrificing the 3D shape reconstruction accuracy

Dutch healthcare reform: did it result in performance improvement of health plans? A comparison of consumer experiences over time

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many countries have introduced elements of managed competition in their healthcare system with the aim to accomplish more efficient and demand-driven health care. Simultaneously, generating and reporting of comparative healthcare information has become an important quality-improvement instrument. We examined whether the introduction of managed competition in the Dutch healthcare system along with public reporting of quality information was associated with performance improvement in health plans.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Experiences of consumers with their health plan were measured in four consecutive years (2005-2008) using the CQI^®health plan instrument 'Experiences with Healthcare and Health Insurer'. Data were available of 13,819 respondents (response = 45%) of 30 health plans in 2005, of 8,266 respondents (response = 39%) of 32 health plans in 2006, of 8,088 respondents (response = 34%) of 32 health plans in 2007, and of 7,183 respondents (response = 31%) of 32 health plans in 2008. We performed multilevel regression analyses with three levels: respondent, health plan and year of measurement. Per year and per quality aspect, we estimated health plan means while adjusting for consumers' age, education and self-reported health status. We tested for linear and quadratic time effects using chi-squares.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall performance of health plans increased significantly from 2005 to 2008 on four quality aspects. For three other aspects, we found that the overall performance first declined and then increased from 2006 to 2008, but the performance in 2008 was not better than in 2005. The overall performance of health plans did not improve more often for quality aspects that were identified as important areas of improvement in the first year of measurement. On six out of seven aspects, the performance of health plans that scored below average in 2005 increased more than the performance of health plans that scored average and/or above average in that year.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found mixed results concerning the effects of managed competition on the performance of health plans. To determine whether managed competition in the healthcare system leads to quality improvement in health plans, it is important to examine whether and for what reasons health plans initiate improvement efforts.</p